Monday’s bond market has opened down slightly even though the major stock indexes are showing early losses. The Dow is currently down 55 points while the Nasdaq has lost 8 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32, which may push this morning’s mortgage rates slightly higher than Friday’s morning pricing.
There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today that is likely to influence mortgage rates. The rest of the week has five economic reports for the markets to digest, but one is considered to be highly important. The remaining reports are moderately important to the markets, meaning they have the potential to affect mortgage rates but usually don't cause a noticeable change. The most important data comes late in the week, but sizable moves in stocks can impact bond trading and mortgage rates any day.
The week's first data comes Wednesday with the release of January's Factory Orders report during late morning hours and the Fed Beige Book during afternoon trading. The Factory Orders report will give us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength while the Beige Book details economic activity throughout the country by Federal Reserve region. There are also some private sector employment-related reports due to be posted Wednesday morning that could affect bond trading enough to move mortgage rates if they show significant surprises.
Overall, look for a fairly active week in the markets and mortgage rates, especially the middle and latter days. I suspect there will be some optimism leading up to Friday's Employment report, which could lead to support in stocks and pressure in bonds as we get closer to Friday. That day is undoubtedly the biggest of the week, but Wednesday’s events and some central bank news from overseas early Thursday morning could also heavily influence mortgage rates.
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